000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141555
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 
03N77W TO 01N100W TO 05N133W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM OF 05N78W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FLARING WITHIN 60 NM OF 08N118W 
AND 07N116W AND ALSO 07N133W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH MEAN AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM N TO S ALONG 132W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS 
CENTERED AT 15N110W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CRESTING ALONG POINTS 
16N128W TO 25N120W TO BEYOND 32N106W. A BAND OF UPPER DRY AIR 
AND SUBSIDENCE IS SWEEPING E THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITHIN 
150 NM OF A LINE FROM 35N122W TO 35N135W. ANOTHER BAND OF DRY 
AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 32N111W TO 
22N130W INTO A LARGER AREA COVERING THE UPPER LEVELS TO THE S OF 
22N BETWEEN 126W AND 142W. A NARROW MOISTURE PLUME IS NOTED 
BETWEEN THESE TWO DRY BANDS...ROUGHLY WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 
26N140W TO 27N130W TO BEYOND 32N121W...CONTINUING N ACROSS 
CALIFORNIA. A SECOND MOISTURE PLUME...THAT ORIGINATED FROM 
FORMER ITCZ CONVECTION...IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A LINE FROM 14N122W TO 24N116W...AND ACROSS THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ALONG 28N111W...CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN 
OLD MEXICO AND OVER MOST OF NEW MEXICO. SOME UPPER MOISTURE IS 
NOTED OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 84W. EXCEPT FOR SMALL 
AREAS OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION ENHANCED ALONG 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 108W AND 118W...THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE 
TROPICS ARE VERY DRY E OF 113W.     

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH TO PULSES OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUING THROUGH WED 
MORNING. MAX SEAS ARE ABOUT 13 FT AND EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 
ABOUT 8 FT ON WED. N TO NE SWELL GENERATED BY THESE WINDS HAS 
SPREAD S TO ALONG 05N BETWEEN 94W AND 107W...AND ARE MERGING 
WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE THROUGH AND 
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO ABOUT 20 KT TUE AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

GULF OF PANAMA...N WINDS AT 20 KT SHOULD DIMINISH TO 15 KT 
TODAY.

$$
NELSON