000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON FEB 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 1N78W 
3N90W 1N101W 3N119W 6N140W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN 
THE ITCZ FROM 9N129W TO 4N131W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE 
VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS 
CURRENTLY FROM 12N110W N INTO ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO AND UPSTREAM 
TROUGHING TO THE W. MEAN TROUGH CURRENTLY FROM 35N121W TO 
18N133W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS FAR NW PORTION 
OF THE AREA FROM 32N128W TO 24N140W AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS 
IT MOVES SLOWLY E ACROSS THE N WATERS THROUGH EARLY TUE. A 
STRONG UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR 36N129W 
AND WILL SUPPLY A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR TO THE AREA ON 
TUE. TO THE SE OF THE FRONT LIES A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING 
FROM A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 26N124W EXTENDING SW TO 18N115W. AN 
AREA OF FRESH TRADES LIES S OF THE RIDGE W OF 120W AND WILL 
SHIFT SLIGHTLY W THROUGH WED. THESE TRADES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO 
INTENSIFY THROUGH TUE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHWARD 
SHIFTING HIGH PRES E OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO THEN 
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY. THIS SHIFTING HIGH PRES WILL ALSO TIGHTEN 
THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRENGTHENING NWLY 
WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES IN THE N GULF OF MEXICO DRIVING 
REINFORCING COLD AIR THROUGH CHIVELA PASS PEAKED IN STRENGTH AND 
INFLUENCE ON THE SW GULF AND SE MEXICO SUN MORNING. WINDS 
THROUGH THE PASS AND ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE ALSO 
PEAKED...BUT REMAIN AT GALE FORCE...AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH 
BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAX SEAS WITHIN THIS 
PLUME OF COOL AIR ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 FT. N TO NE SWELL 
GENERATED BY THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD S AND SW THROUGH THE 
PERIOD...AND MERGE WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL...AND LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELL FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE BLOWING FROM THE 
W CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...THEN THROUGH AND DOWNWIND 
OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 
20-25 KT RANGE THROUGH PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE COOL 
DRAINAGE FLOW WILL MAXIMIZE WINDS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 

GULF OF PANAMA...NE TRADE WINDS CROSSING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN 
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ARE FILTERING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF 
PANAMA AND BECOMING NLY TO NEAR 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA. 
WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY 
THIS AFTERNOON.

$$
PAW