000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140357
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON FEB 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 01N78W 
TO 02N87W TO 00N105W TO 05N130W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE 
VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS 
CURRENTLY FROM 14N109W INTO ARIZONA AND UPSTREAM TROUGHING TO 
THE W. HIGH AMPLITUDE MEAN TROUGH CURRENTLY FROM 34N130W TO 
12N134W. SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH TROUGH NEAR 32N123W IS 
LIFTING NE OVER THE RIDGE AND WILL ENTER SW CONUS OVERNIGHT. AN 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA 
FROM 30N133W TO 25N140W AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES 
SLOWLY E ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH TUE MORNING. AN 
INCOMING TROUGH WILL SUPPLY A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR TO 
THE AREA LATE ON TUE. TO THE SE OF THE FRONT LIES A WEAK SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 26N125W EXTENDING SW TO 
21N145W AND SE TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A MODEST 
ZONE OF FRESH TRADES LIES S OF THE RIDGE FROM 08N TO 14N W OF 
120W AND WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY W AND SW THROUGH MON AS THE HIGH 
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY E. THESE TRADES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY 
BY TUE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHWARD SHIFTING HIGH PRES E 
OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO THEN STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY. 
THIS SHIFTING HIGH PRES WILL ALSO TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT 
ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRENGTHENING NWLY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES IN THE N GULF OF MEXICO DRIVING 
REINFORCING COLD AIR THROUGH CHIVELA PASS PEAKED IN STRENGTH AND 
INFLUENCE ON THE SW GULF AND SE MEXICO SUN MORNING. WINDS 
THROUGH THE PASS AND ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE ALSO 
PEAKED...BUT REMAIN AT GALE FORCE...AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH 
BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS. SATELLITE PHOTOS 
THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTED THE COOL DRY PLUME OF COLD AIR FLOWING 
S THEN SW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THEN CONTINUING W-SW 
TO NEAR 11N107W. MAX SEAS WITHIN THIS PLUME OF COOL AIR ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 16 FT. N TO NE SWELL GENERATED BY THESE WINDS 
WILL SPREAD S AND SW THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MERGE WITH 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL...AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL FROM THE 
CENTRAL PACIFIC. 

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...NE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE BLOWING 
FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...THEN THROUGH AND 
DOWNWIND OF THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO. WINDS NEAR 
FONSECA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT MON MORNING AS THE 
PRES GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WEAKENS...BUT WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE THROUGH PAPAGAYO 
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE COOL DRAINAGE FLOW WILL MAXIMIZE 
WINDS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 

GULF OF PANAMA...NE TRADE WINDS CROSSING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN 
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ARE FILTERING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF 
PANAMA AND BECOMING NLY TO NEAR 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA 
N OF 06N E OF 81W. WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY MON AFTERNOON.

$$
STRIPLING