000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN FEB 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 06N77W 
TO 03N81W TO 01N105W TO 07N129W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED NEAR AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE 
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM 
13N108W INTO ARIZONA AND UPSTREAM TROUGHING TO THE W. AMPLIFIED 
TROUGH CURRENTLY FROM 32N127W TO 13N137W WILL WEAKEN S OF 30N 
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS DIVERTED NE OVER 
THE RIDGE AND INTO THE SW CONUS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO FAR 
NW PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 30N136W TO 26N140W WILL GRADUALLY  
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY E ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH 
TUE MORNING...BUT AN INCOMING TROUGH WILL SUPPLY A REINFORCING 
SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE AREA JUST AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD 
TUE. TO THE SE OF THE FRONT LIES A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING 
FROM A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 28N123W EXTENDING SW TO 20N150W AND SE 
TO SOUTHERN  BAJA CALIFORNIA. A MODEST ZONE OF FRESH TRADES LIES 
S OF THE RIDGE FROM 06N TO 16N W OF 116W WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY W 
AND SW THROUGH MON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY E. THESE TRADES 
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY TUE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE 
SOUTHWARD SHIFTING HIGH PRES E OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS 
EXPECTED TO THEN STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES IN N GULF OF MEXICO DRIVING 
REINFORCING COLD AIR THROUGH CHIVELA PASS HAS PEAKED IN STRENGTH 
AND INFLUENCE ON THE SW GULF AND SE MEXICO. WINDS THROUGH THE 
PASS AND ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC APPEAR TO HAVE PEAKED 
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST NIGHT...AND HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 
STORM STRENGTH...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BLOW GALE FORCE THROUGH THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE FALLING BELOW GALE FORCE SUN AFTERNOON. 
SATELLITE PHOTOS THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST THE COOL DRY PLUME OF 
COLD AIR FLOWING S THEN SW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THEN 
CONTINUING W-SW TO NEAR 11N104W. MAX SEAS WITHIN THIS PLUME OF 
COOL AIR ARE ESTIMATED AT 16 FT. N TO NE SWELL GENERATED BY 
THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD S AND SW THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND MERGE 
WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL...AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL FROM 
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. 

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...NE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE BLOWING 
FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...THEN THROUGH AND 
DOWNWIND OF THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO. WINDS NEAR 
FONSECA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT MON MORNING AS THE 
PRES GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WEAKENS...BUT WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE THROUGH PAPAGAYO 
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COOL DRAINAGE FLOW INCREASES WINDS IN THE 
EARLY MORNING HOURS. 

GULF OF PANAMA...NE TRADE WINDS CROSSING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN 
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ARE FILTERING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF 
PANAMA AND BECOMING NLY TO NEAR 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA 
N OF 06N E OF 81W. WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY MON AFTERNOON.

$$
STRIPLING