000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131600
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN FEB 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 04N77W 
TO 01N105W TO 06N126W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE 
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 
107W AND UPSTREAM TROUGH ALONG 133W. AMPLIFIED TROUGH CURRENTLY 
ALONG 133W WILL WEAKEN S OF 30N THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS 
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS DIVERTED NE INTO THE SW CONUS OVER THE 
UPPER RIDGE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
AREA FROM 30N138W TO 28N140W WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES E 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH TUE MORNING...BUT AN INCOMING 
TROUGH WILL SUPPLY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE AREA 
JUST AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD TUE. FRESH TRADES FROM 08N TO 18N 
W OF 118W WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SW BY TONIGHT AND INTENSIFY BY TUE 
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHWARD SHIFTING HIGH PRES E OF THE 
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BY EARLY TUE.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES IN NW GULF OF MEXICO IS FORCING 
A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR THROUGH CHILEVA PASS. A STORM 
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT LESSENING OF 
THE GRADIENT THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO DIMINISH 
BELOW 50 KT WHILE CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT WILL DROP 
WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE SUN AFTERNOON. MAX SEAS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
18 FT. NE SWELL GENERATED BY THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD SE THROUGH 
THE PERIOD...MEETING UP WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL SUN WITH 
8 FT SEAS EXPANDING WELL DOWNWIND OF TEHUANTEPEC BY TUE MORNING.

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...A 0342Z ASCAT PASS LAST NIGHT 
SHOWED NE TO E WINDS TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 20 KT 
N TO NE WINDS DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF FONSECA. WINDS NEAR FONSECA
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT 
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WEAKENS...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE PERIOD AS COOL 
DRAINAGE FLOW INCREASES WINDS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 

GULF OF PANAMA...NE TRADE WINDS TO 20 KT ARE FILTERING ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF PANAMA AND BECOMING NLY ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA N 
OF 06N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W CONFIRMED BY SHIP ZCDGS THIS MORNING. 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY MON AFTERNOON.

$$
MUNDELL