000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121555
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 12 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N80W TO 
07N120W TO 07N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ W OF 125W CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND 
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY W ENCOUNTERING STRONGER 
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN INTO A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE 
FEATURE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE. COLD FRONT 
WHICH EXTENDS FROM 40N135W TO 24N150W WILL MOVE E-NE INTO THE NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...WITH S WINDS TO 25-30 KT 
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NW WINDS TO 20-25 KT BEHIND 
THE FRONT. SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BUILD TO AROUND 
13-14 FT IN NW SWELL IN EXTREME NW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA 
DURING THE NEXT 30-60 HOURS. GFS MODEL SHOWS THE FRONT LIFTING N 
OF 30N NEAR 130W IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS SW 
FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH A STATIONARY 1024 MB HIGH 
ANCHORING THE RIDGE NEAR 33N125W TO 20N150W. THE RIDGE WILL ACT 
TO BUFFER THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT RIDGE TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH A HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N125W TO AROUND 22N137W THROUGH 
MON NIGHT ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE ACROSS THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. RECENT OBSERVATIONS AT LAND STATION 
IXTEPEC MEXICO WERE REPORTING 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT...AND A 
0404 UTC ASCAT PASS LAST NIGHT CAPTURED 35 KT N-NE WINDS. HIGH 
PRES OVER SE TEXAS WILL INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... 
SENDING A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR THROUGH THE PASS WHICH 
WILL INCREASE WINDS TO STORM FORCE TONIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT 
OVER SE MEXICO TIGHTENS. A SLIGHT LESSENING OF THE GRADIENT ON 
SUN AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 50 KT 
TO GALE FORCE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 18 FT COINCIDENT WITH 
THE STORM FORCE CONDITIONS. NE SWELL GENERATED BY THESE WINDS 
WILL SPREAD SW TO 04N BY SUN NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20 KT TODAY WITH 
ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW RESUMING OFF OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING 
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT 
TONIGHT PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT AS TRADES INCREASE 
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

GULF OF PANAMA...NE TRADE WINDS TO 20 KT ARE FILTERING ACROSS THE
ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA N OF 06N BETWEEN 78W 
AND 80W AS INDICATED BY A 0222 UTC ASCAT PASS LAST NIGHT. LITTLE 
CHANGE IS EXPECTED NEXT 12-18 HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 
20 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE TRADES N OF THE ISTHMUS WEAKEN.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE 
U.S. INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO 
IS GENERATING 20 KT NW WINDS FUNNELING IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
N OF 26N. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 KT THROUGH 24 HOURS...THEN 
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

$$
MUNDELL