000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111548
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 05N77W 
TO 03N92W TO 07N126W THEN RESUMES NEAR 04N135W TO 03N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM SE ARIZONA THROUGH 26N127W TO A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 21N138W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET WITH CORE 
SPEEDS OF 60 TO 80 KT E OF THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 35N130W IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS 
THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO JUST EAST OF THE 
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NEAR 20N145W. THE HIGH AND RIDGE AXIS WILL 
MIGRATE SLOWLY E THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NW SWELL OF 8 TO 11 
FT ENCOMPASSES THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA N OF 09N AND W OF 118W. 
THIS SWELL TRAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AS IT PROPAGATES SE 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 09N127W TO 04N134W IS MOVING W 
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION 
WITH THE TROUGH IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NE OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 121W AND 126W. IT IS LIKELY THAT 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH ALONG 137W IS FURTHER ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION. AT THE 
SURFACE...THE TROUGH HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
HIGH AND THE ITCZ WITH A BELT OF 20 TO 25 KT NE TO E TRADES 
OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 16N W OF THE TROUGH AND 127W. THE AREA OF 
STRONGER TRADES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NE AS THE TROUGH SLIDES 
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS THIS 
MORNING REMAINING BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE. 
HOWEVER...A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE 
LATER TODAY WITH WINDS REACHING STORM FORCE BY LATE SAT. A 
STRONG 1032 MB HIGH WILL CENTER OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND 
THE ASSOCIATED INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO WILL INDUCE THE STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH EARLY SUN WITH 
SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20 KT DURING 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL 
AMERICA LANDMASS. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY EARLY SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO 
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE 
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

GULF OF PANAMA...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SPREAD WESTWARD FRI NIGHT WITH 
NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW TO 20 KT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA 
SPILLING INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA REMAINING N OF 06N BETWEEN 78W 
AND 80W.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES 
OVER THE U.S. INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SURFACE TROUGHING OVER NW 
MEXICO IS GENERATING 20 KT NW TO N WINDS WHICH ARE FUNNELING 
THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
BY EARLY SAT TO 25 KT AS THE HIGH OVER THE U.S. STRENGTHENS 
SLIGHTLY...THEN RELAX ONCE AGAIN BY SUN.

$$
HUFFMAN