000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102201 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU FEB 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM 05N78W TO 05N100W TO 08N122W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 123W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...STRONGLY POSITIVE TILT MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM SW CALIFORNIA THROUGH 29N130W TO 19N142W...WITH A BASE NEAR 09N141W MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST WATERS. THE SUBTROPICAL JET E OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALOFT INTO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO WITH CORE SPEEDS OF 80-90 KT. THIS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN APPEARS TEMPORARY AS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE W OF THIS TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING NE FROM HAWAII TO NEAR 40N136W WILL ENCROACH UPON THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...PINCHING OFF AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 32N125W LATE FRI AND ALLOWING THE TROUGH TO LEAVE BEHIND AN UPPER LOW NEAR 16N135W. SURFACE...A NEW 1027 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 38N133W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO JUST EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NEAR 20N147W. A NEW 1022 MB HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR 34N130W ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE SLOWLY E. THE PRES GRADIENT HAS RELAXED GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 20 KT GENERALLY N OF 20N WHILE SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE FROM 13 FT TO BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SAT. S OF 20N HOWEVER...AN AREA OF 20 KT NE TRADES LIE FROM 06N TO 16N OVER THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 123W AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY SMALLER IN AREAL COVERAGE BY EARLY SAT. BY SAT...THIS AREA OF FRESH TRADES IS EXPECTED TO LOCATE NW OF AN WESTWARD MOVING SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 126W. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...COLD AIR HAS SURGED THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND HAS USHERED IN ANOTHER GALE FORCE WIND EVENT. A 1538 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS SHOWED THE ONSET OF 35 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS SURGE IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF EARLY FRI. NWP MODELS INDICATE A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD DRY AIR WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY SAT MORNING DUE TO AN INCREASED PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE SPILLING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF COSTA RICA WITH WINDS TO 20 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN DRAINAGE FLOW IS AT A MAXIMUM. GULF OF PANAMA...AS APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGHING TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RELAX OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER BY EARLY SAT...EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD WITH DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE GULF REMAINING N OF 06N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN AND SURFACE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN MEXICO IS GENERATING NW WINDS WHICH ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT TONIGHT AND REMAIN 20 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE PRES GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS. $$ COBB