000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100344
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE AXIS OF THE ITCZ IS CENTERED FROM 08N83W TO 03N108W TO 
09N120W TO 06N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90-120 
NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...
THE REX BLOCK PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE PAST WEEK HAS FINALLY 
BROKEN DOWN AS THE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO 
AN AMPLIFYING WELL DEFINED CYCLONE NW OF THE AREA NEAR 47N156W. 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING DOWN THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS IN 
THE PROCESS OF CAPTURING THE WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC VORTEX 
CENTERED NEAR 25N132W AND ATTEMPTS TO SLOWLY EJECT IT SLOWLY EWD 
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS APPEARS TEMPORARY AS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 
A NEW UPPER LOW FORMS AT EDGE OF BASIN NEAR 18N138W KEEPING 
TROUGH IN PLACE IN NW CORNER OF E PAC WITH ANOTHER BLOCKING 
RIDGE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JET E OF THE 
VORTEX/TROUGH IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO WITH CORE SPEEDS OF 85-100 
KT. 

AT THE SURFACE...
NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRES 1036 MB NEAR 46N130W CONTINUES TO 
TIGHTEN GRADIENT AGAINST A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL 
CALIFORNIA TO 27N117W INCREASING STRONG NLY WINDS N OF THE AREA. 
ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...ASSOCIATED NLY SWELLS AS HIGH AS 14-15 FT ARE CROSSING 
INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HIGH SEAS AREA. THESE 
SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SWD W OF 120W AND SUBSIDE TO 10-12 
FT BY LATE THU. 

GAP WINDS...
COLD FRONT SWEEPING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SLIDING SWD 
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE WILL USHER IN GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED THU AND 
THU NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON FRI.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN NE TRADES SPILL 
ACROSS COSTA RICA MOUNTAINS WITH WINDS OF 20 KT EXPECTED IN THE 
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THU. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY 
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT LATER THU...BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN 
EARLY FRI AS COLD FRONT CROSSES WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SHORTWAVE SUPPORT ALOFT AND TIGHT GRADIENT 
BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE NW AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH JUST 
OFFSHORE ALONG BAJA PENINSULA BRING FRESH NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT 
FUNNELING INTO THE GULF. WINDS DIMINISH THU AS BOTH...HIGH PRES 
AND SHORTWAVE ALOFT...MOVE FURTHER E. 

$$
COBB