000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090918
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED ALONG AN AXIS 
FROM 08N83W TO 03N95W TO 09N115W TO 07N130W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 123W AND 129W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE REX BLOCK PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN 
NORTH PACIFIC THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN 
TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND NW MEXICO 
SIPHONS OFF SOME OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
UPPER LOW COMPLEX GENERALLY CENTERED NEAR 25N132W AT 0600Z. THIS 
HELPS TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY NE OF THE LOW 
COMPLEX AND JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING A POSITIVELY 
TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER NW WATERS THU. UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY 
EXTENDING THROUGH HAWAII TO NW OF THE LOW COMPLEX NEAR 35N140W 
WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND PINCH OFF A NEW HIGH N OF THE LOW 
COMPLEX FRI. AT THE SURFACE...A 1040 MB HIGH PRES CENTER NOW 
LIES NEAR 46N133W. THIS HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY MIGRATES 
EASTWARD TODAY. STRONG N TO NE WINDS BETWEEN THE RIDGE EXTENDING 
S FROM THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM TOWARD HAWAII AND TROUGHING ALONG 
THE CALIFORNIA COAST ARE REACHING INTO THE AREA N OF 26N W OF 
120W ACCORDING TO THE 0512Z ASCAT AND 0220Z WINDSAT PASSES. ON 
THU...A NEW WEAKER HIGH CENTER WILL PINCH OFF JUST N OF THE 
FORECAST AREA AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT OVER N WATERS. 
AN AREA OF FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW LIES OVER W WATERS AND WILL 
SHRINK WESTWARD THU AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH REORGANIZES. LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELL WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 115W...BUT 
THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE N SWELL EMANATING 
FROM THE N TO NE WINDS EXTENDING A THE GALE EVENT OFF THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS TODAY 
INTO THU. SEAS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 15 FT TODAY BEFORE 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE 0326Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS HAVE 
DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE 0220Z 
JASON2 PASS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 
8 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH DIPPING S THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS 
AND NW MEXICO TODAY WILL SEND ANOTHER BATCH OF DENSER COLD AND 
DRY AIR INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS BY THU MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AROUND 
SUNSET. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRES HAS BUILT INTO CENTRAL AMERICA 
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON 
MON AND THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE. THIS PATTERN HAS INCREASED THE 
WINDS A NOTCH IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH WINDS JUST 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BRIEFLY REACHING 25 KT THIS 
MORNING DURING THE TIME OF PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL 
QUICKLY DIMINISH BACK TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY 
DIMINISHING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THU EVENING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THU MORNING WILL FIRST BRING STRONG NW TO N WINDS TO 
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT LATER TODAY BUT SPREAD S THROUGH THE CENTRAL 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. 

$$
SCHAUER