000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080329
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED ALONG AN AXIS 
FROM 05N78W TO 03N92W TO 08N116W TO 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N134W 
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS N OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM 
29N134W TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED WELL 
NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 41N135W. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL 
CONTINUE TO BLOCK THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF FRONTAL FEATURES OVER 
THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE 
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1042 MB 
HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN 
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THE HIGH 
LOCATED FAR NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A LACK OF ANY 
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...NE TRADES REMAIN BELOW 20 KT FOR MOST OF 
THE FORECAST WATERS. HOWEVER...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY 
LOCATED WEST OF THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF 150W... SEAS REMAIN 
IN THE 9 TO 12 FT RANGE GENERALLY W OF 128W. BY THE END OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD...10/0000 UTC...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO 
14 FT N OF 27N W OF 120W IN MIXED NE AND LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL 
DUE TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING RESIDENCE IN THE GULF 
OF ALASKA REGION.

NW TO N WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE CURRENTLY BELOW 20 
KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS CONTINUED TO RELAX OVER NORTHERN 
MEXICO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND 
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHWARD WITHIN 24 
HOURS LOCATING NEAR THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER. AS THE FRONT SKIMS 
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA REGION...FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AN 
ASSOCIATED STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND 
ARIZONA WILL ONCE AGAIN INTRODUCE NW TO N WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 
KT RANGE EARLY WEDNESDAY.

GAP WINDS...
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR 20 KT WINDS 
TO PULSE MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AT 
THE TIME OF PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE HOWEVER IS THE ONSET OF GALE FORCE WINDS 
AND BUILDING SEAS FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. A STRONG 1025 MB HIGH CONTINUES SETTLING OVER 
EASTERN MEXICO WITH COLD DENSE AIR PUSHING THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING. NUMERICAL MODELS 
HINT AT STORM FORCE WINDS FOR A BRIEF 12 HOUR PERIOD OVERNIGHT 
TONIGHT WITH 50 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 15 FT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL 
QUICKLY DROP BELOW GALE FORCE LATE TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE 
WEAKENS OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

$$
HUFFMAN