000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON FEB 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED ALONG AN AXIS 
FROM 04N77W TO 03N93W TO 08N116W TO 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N133W 
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO THE N EXTENDING FROM 30N125W 
W-SW TO NEAR 26N140W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NW 
FROM 30N125W TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED 
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 42N139W. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL 
CONTINUE TO BLOCK THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF FRONTAL FEATURES OVER 
THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE 
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1042 MB 
HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. THIS HIGH WILL MIGRATE EVEN FURTHER 
NORTH TODAY BEFORE RETURNING TO NEARLY ITS CURRENT POSITION IN 
ABOUT 48 HOURS. WITH THE HIGH LOCATED FAR NORTH OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA AND A LACK OF ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...NE TRADES 
REMAIN BELOW 20 KT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS. HOWEVER... 
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF THE AREA ALONG 
150W...SEAS REMAIN IN THE 8 TO 11 FT RANGE GENERALLY W OF 132W. 
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...09/1800 UTC...SEAS ARE 
FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO 14 FT N OF 27N W OF 120W IN LONG-PERIOD 
NW SWELL. 

NW TO N WINDS OF 20 KT ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AS DEPICTED BY AN EARLIER 07/1638 UTC ASCAT 
PASS...WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM THE 25 KM ASCAT EXPERIMENTAL 
COASTAL WIND VECTORS AS WELL. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST 
TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN 
INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO AN INCREASED PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA.

GAP WINDS...
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR 20 KT WINDS 
TO PULSE MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AT 
THE TIME OF PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE HOWEVER IS THE ONSET OF INCREASED WINDS 
AND SEAS FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO 
AND COLD DENSE AIR IS PUSHING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS EVENING. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO 
HINT AT STORM FORCE WINDS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT 
WITH 50 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 15 FT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL QUICKLY 
DROP BELOW GALE FORCE LATE TUESDAY AS THE PROGRESSIVE FRONT 
QUICKLY MOVES E OF THE AREA.

$$
HUFFMAN