000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071516
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED ALONG AN AXIS 
FROM 3N85W 5N96W 8N110W 7N120W TO 3N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...A CUT OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 19N130W 
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE N EXTENDING FROM NEAR 29N122W WNW TO 
BEYOND 32N131W. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BLOCK THE 
EASTWARD ADVANCE OF FRONTAL FEATURES OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC 
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES COVERS THE 
AREA ANCHORED BY 1040 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION. THIS HIGH 
WILL MIGRATE EVEN FURTHER NORTH TODAY BEFORE RETURNING TO JUST E 
OF ITS CURRENT POSITION IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW 
IS WEAKENING AND RETREATING WESTWARD BEFORE DIMINISHING IN 48 
HOURS AS A RESULT. NE WINDS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH 
AND TROUGHING ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS WELL AS A SURFACE 
TROUGH FROM 30N125W TO 26N126W ARE REACHING TO THE AREA N OF 27N 
W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS 
EXPECTED TO SHIFT W-SW BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER TONIGHT ALONG 
130W N OF 20N. FRESH NE SWELL GENERATED BY THIS FLOW WILL 
PROPAGATE SW...MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OVER NW WATERS 
THROUGH TUE. THIS SWELL TRAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OF NE 
SWELL IN THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES AND WILL YIELD SEAS OF 8 TO 10 
FT OVER MOST OF THE AREA W OF 130W THROUGH TUE MORNING. 

E OF 110W...THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR 
20 KT WINDS TO PULSE MAINLY DURING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING 
HOURS AT THE TIME OF PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A 1010 
MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ALONG THE REMAINING 
COAST OF COLOMBIA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. 

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR LATER TODAY WILL BE THE ONSET OF 
GALE FORCE TO STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AS COLD FRONT PUSHES E ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING DENSE 
COLD AND DRY AIR TO PUSH S THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT STORM FORCE WINDS FOR A 
BRIEF PERIOD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH 50 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 16 
FT ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DROP BELOW GALE FORCE TUE 
AFTERNOON AS THE PROGRESSIVE FRONT QUICKLY MOVES E OF THE AREA. 
THE SAME COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING STORM CONDITIONS 
TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS CURRENTLY GENERATING NW TO N WINDS 
TO 20 KT IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LOOK FOR THESE WINDS 
TO DIP BELOW 20 KT OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL 
APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE TUE NIGHT AND 
INCREASE WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY WED 
MORNING.

$$
WALLACE