000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061541
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN FEB 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED ALONG AN AXIS 
FROM 05N80W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N105W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
08N117W...TO 08N115W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...A REX BLOCK PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE 
UPPER LEVELS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED N OF THE AREA NEAR 
36N130W...N OF AN UPPER LOW COMPLEX GENERALLY CENTERED NEAR 
18N130W. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOCK THE ADVANCE OF FRONTAL 
FEATURES OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC FROM SHIFTING INTO THE NE 
PACIFIC FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH 
PRES AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 40N133W 
WILL SHIFT N AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRES OVER THE NE 
PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW FROM 09N TO 28N W 
OF 120W TO DIMINISH THROUGH 48 HOURS. NE WINDS BETWEEN THE HIGH 
PRES TO THE NORTH AND TROUGHING OVER CALIFORNIA...ARE REACHING 
SW FROM THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TO NEAR 28N137W. AIDING 
THE NE FLOW...A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE LOW IS SHIFTING S FROM THE 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...AND WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH ALONG 
125W FROM 20N TO 30N BY MON MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING TUE. 
FRESH NE SWELL GENERATED BY THIS FLOW WILL PROPAGATE SW...MIXING 
WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL N OF 25N W OF 130W THROUGH TUE. NE 
SWELL IN THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES IS CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO AS 
HIGH AS 13 FT FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 130W...BUT THIS WILL SUBSIDE 
AND SHIFT W OF 140W THROUGH TUE. MIXING WITH THIS...NW SWELL 
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WILL COVER MOST OF THE AREA W OF 120W OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE WITHIN 120 NM 
N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 125W...DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW 
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ...AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ON 
THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW COMPLEX. 

E OF 110W...FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS...BUT CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20 KT NONETHELESS MAINLY DURING 
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. N WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS 
OF PANAMA WILL ABATE THROUGH 24 HOURS AS FLOW OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN BECOMES MORE NE TO E. MAIN ISSUE BY 36 HOURS WILL BE 
THE ONSET OF GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS 
DENSER COLD AND DRY AIR PUSHES S OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
AND INTO THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS BY LATE MON. OTHERWISE...A 
1009 MB SURFACE WAS ANALYZED NEAR 08N105W...ALTHOUGH WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT ASSOCIATED CONVECTION OR ENHANCED SURFACE WIND FLOW. 
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT W AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN