000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060910 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN FEB 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0700 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ANALYZED ALONG AN AXIS FROM 02N79W TO 03N90W TO 08N107W TO 05N125W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 103W. TWO TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. THE FIRST TROUGH LIES FROM 12N107W TO 06N111W AND HAS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N AND W OF N OF 09N. THE SECOND TROUGH LIES FROM 10N118W TO 03N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 120W. ...DISCUSSION... FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE REGION FROM 10N TO 20N W 120W BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS STRONG HIGH PRES WELL NORTH OF THE AREA REORGANIZES EVEN FARTHER N ALLOWING THE PRES GRADIENT TO SLACKEN OVER WESTERN WATERS JUST N OF THE ITCZ. OVER N CENTRAL WATERS...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM TO THE N AND TROUGHING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 20 KT NE WINDS MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE COASTAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH GETS CAUGHT IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 15N140W. NE SWELL TO 8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINDS GENERATED BY THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO N CENTRAL WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 12 FT BY TUE MORNING AS IT MOVES THROUGH NW WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED NEAR THE ITCZ OVER CENTRAL WATERS AS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. THIS CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE MAXIMA OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND PRIMARILY LIES WITHIN A REGION A UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 05N105W AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM 10N90W TO 20N98W. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME AND OPEN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN THE REGION. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE HERE THROUGH TUE. SHIPS ZCDF4 AND DILE HAVE REPORTED 20 KT N WINDS AND 8 FT SEAS NW OF CABO CORRIENTES AND ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS AREA IS JUST N OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER EASTERN WATERS AND WEST OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. THE PRES GRADIENT AND THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN HERE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT DETERIORATES AND PRESSURES RISE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. SUN AND EARLY MON BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND INCREASE WINDS TO 20 KT TONIGHT. THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE U.S. IS EXPECTED TO BE REASONABLE PROGRESSIVE...WITH A NEW COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST MON THAT WILL LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES AND ALLOW THE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO SLACKEN ENOUGH BY LATE MON NIGHT FOR WINDS TO DROP BELOW 20 KT. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF WINDS TO 20 KT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEHIND THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL RUSH S THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO MON AND BRING WINDS TO GALE FORCE BY MON EVENING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS TO 20 KT WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH MON. GULF OF PANAMA...N WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN THEN DIMINISH SUN NIGHT. $$ SCHAUER