000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060316
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN FEB 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM 04N77W TO 03N84W THEN TURNS NW TO 
08N105W THEN BROADENS AS IT TURNS SW TO BEYOND 03N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG FLAREUPS IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N92W TO 
11N108W. LIGHTNING DATA SUGGESTS TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF 
10.5N106.5. SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE 
OCCASIONALLY FLARING ALONG 04.5N BETWEEN 114W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES CENTRAL N AMERICA WITH THE BASE OF 
THE TROUGH OVER OLD MEXICO AT 24N105W. A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS 
EXTENDS W ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 24N105W TO 26N130W AND 
INTO A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE QUASI STATIONARY NEAR 24N142W. UPPER 
MOISTURE IS EVAPORATING WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE UPPER CYCLONE 
CENTER. A PRONOUNCED BAND OF VERY DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED 
WITHIN 270 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30N93W TO 25N107W TO 
BEYOND 32N133W. UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED N OF THIS BAND OF DRY 
AIR...AND HAS RACED SE TO ALONG 28N FROM SW TEXAS TO THE 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. 

AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF CYCLONE W OF THE AREA NEAR 11N145W IS  
FILLING AS IT MOVES S...BUT IS STILL ENHANCING SMALL CLUSTERS OF 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 137W AND 143W. A 
LARGE AREA OF UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS OBSERVED FROM 08N TO 20N 
E OF 145W AND MERGES WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE UNDER THE UPPER 
RIDGE DESCRIBED NEXT. 

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 12N95W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO A CREST AT 18N142W. UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE ALONG THIS RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 91W AND 114W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FANS OVER THE 
TROPICS FROM 03N TO 15N BETWEEN 90W AND 115W. DENSE UPPER 
MOISTURE IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...AND 
CONCENTRATES INTO A TROPICAL PLUME WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19N135W TO 17N113W...WHERE THE PLUME NARROWS 
AS IT CONTINUES ENE ACROSS CENTRAL OLD MEXICO BETWEEN 18N AND 
23N AND OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS PROGRESSING WESTWARD OVER THE W CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE NICARAGUAN/HONDURAN BORDER WITH ITS ENVELOPE 
OF CYCLONIC FLOW DIPPING S OVER THE PACIFIC TO A BASE NEAR 
11N88W. THIS FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
DEVELOPING NEAR 14N93W. DRY UPPER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES 
TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION TO ONLY ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W AND 
100W AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED.

AT THE SURFACE...
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO NEAR 15N110W. NE TRADES AT 20 TO 
25 KT CONTINUE SW OF THE RIDGE TO 09N W OF 116W. LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELLS ARE  MIXING WITH TRADE WIND GENERATED NE SWELL OVER THE 
AREA W OF 105W. THE AREA OF NE TO E WINDS AT 20 KT WILL SHIFT TO 
THE WATERS W OF 133W LATE MON.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO A 
MAXIMUM OF 25 KT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT BY SUNRISE SUN.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE AT 20 TO 25 KT THE 
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...THEN PULSE AT 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH MON. 

GULF OF PANAMA...N WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
SUN THEN DIMINISH SUN NIGHT.

$$
NELSON