000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051534
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 3N88W 
7N103W 8N108W 6N121W TO 4N134W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 11N105W TO 6N106W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 96W AND 105W 
AND FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 107W AND 112W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE DESERT SW TO OVER NW MEXICO 
EXTENDING TO 26N OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER S ARIZONA 
OVER NW MEXICO ALONG 30N111W INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 
24N107W BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS N OF THE REGION ALONG THE E COAST OF CALIFORNIA WITH 
SURFACE RIDGING W OF THE TROUGH AS WELL AS OVER INLAND OVER 
MEXICO PRODUCING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO GIVING THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA NW TO N 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. THE GRADIENT IS BEGINNING 
TO RELAX AND THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KT LATER THIS 
AFTERNOON BUT WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON TUE AS NEW HIGH PRES 
BUILDS S FROM THE U.S. ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. AN UPPER RIDGE IS 
TO THE W OF THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED NEAR 35N35W COVERING THE 
AREA N OF 27N W OF 115W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 
15N W OF 114W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SURFACE RIDGE 
AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING FRESH TRADE WINDS 
WITH HIGHER SEAS...HIGHEST BEING IN THE W/CENTRAL PORTION WHERE 
THE LONGEST FETCH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT DURING THE PAST DAY OR 
TWO. THE TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 
HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGING RETREATS NW OF THE AREA WITH A 
SURFACE TROUGH FORMING SW OF THE U.S. CALIFORNIA COAST BY 48 
HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL E/W RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE TROPICS W OF 
105W TO JUST BEYOND 140W DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE 
AREA S OF 20N TO THE TROPICS PRODUCING DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH 
EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW GALE FORCE 
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER GALE EVENT IS LIKELY MON AFTERNOON AS 
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES SE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS FROM THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE FROM 10N-12N E OF 
90W TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN WILL RETREAT 
SOMEWHAT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT E OF 88W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

GULF OF PANAMA...N WINDS FROM THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 06N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W THROUGH THE ISTHMUS 
OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN MORNING RAPIDLY 
DIMINISHING SUN AFTERNOON. 

$$
WALLACE