000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050928
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 02N79W 
TO 06N101W THEN RESUMES NEAR 07N103W TO 09N113W THEN RESUMES 
NEAR 07N116W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 99W AND 103W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 109W AND 112W AND 
ALSO FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 113W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE U.S. MIDWEST REGION 
TO THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
MEANWHILE UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS BOTH N AND S OF THIS TROUGH. AT 
THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS ALONG THE E COAST OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WITH SURFACE RIDGING W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA. A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE REGION 
AND A 0452 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED NW-N 20-30 KT NORTHERLY 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 23N TO 29N ALONG WITH 8-10 
FT IN NW SWELL SPILLING OUT S OF THE GULF ALL THE WAY TO 08N 
BETWEEN 104W AND 110W. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX DURING THE NEXT 
24 HOURS WITH WINDS BACKING OFF A BIT TO 20 KT THEN INCREASING 
AGAIN TO 20-25 KT BY 48 HOURS AS NEW STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS S 
FROM THE U.S. ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.

ELSEWHERE ALOFT...AN UPPER CYCLONE HAS CUT OFF JUST W OF THE 
AREA NEAR 15N145W WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING TO 
A WEAKER UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 28N137W. UPPER RIDGING EXISTS ACROSS 
THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REACHING FROM NEAR 
14N107W TO 22N137W. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM 
THE TROPICS FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 120W.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N 
OF 08N W OF 110W AND A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES WITH 
SEAS OF 8-14 FT...HIGHEST BEING IN THE CENTRAL PORTION WHERE THE 
LONGEST FETCH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT DURING THE PAST 24-48 HOURS. 
THE TRADES WILL DIMINISH AND SIGNIFICANTLY SHRINK DURING THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE RIDGING RETRACTS NW OF THE AREA WITH A 
SURFACE TROUGH FORMING SW OF THE U.S. CALIFORNIA COAST BY 48 
HOURS.

A PAIR OF WEAK TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. THE EASTERN 
TROUGH IS FROM 05N TO 09N ALONG 101W. THE WESTERN TROUGH IS FROM 
06N TO 12N ALONG 115W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS AS DESCRIBED IN 
THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A 0308 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED 30-34 KT 
WINDS AND A 0400 UTC OBSERVATION AT LAND-BASED STATION IXTEPEC 
IN OAXACA MEXICO REPORTED GUSTS TO 35 KT. A GALE WARNING REMAINS 
IN EFFECT THROUGH 15 UTC WITH WINDS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT BY 00 UTC SUN. ANOTHER GALE EVENT IS LIKELY MON AS 
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES SE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20-25 KT 
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT 
INCREASING BACK TO 20 KT BY LATE SAT NIGHT AND DIMINISHING AGAIN 
SUN AFTERNOON. GULF OF PANAMA...A 0308 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED 
20 KT N WINDS N OF 06N BETWEEN 78W AND 80.5W FEEDING ACROSS THE 
ISTHMUS OF PANAMA FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE WINDS WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH SUN MORNING DIMINISHING THEREAFTER AS THE TRADES 
IN THE CARIBBEAN WEAKEN.

$$
LEWITSKY