000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050323
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT FEB 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 04N93W TO 09N114W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N95W TO 07N91W AND 
WITHIN 60 NM OF 11N106W WHERE LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES MULTIPLE 
STROKES....AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N112W 
TO 05N115W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYERED UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER OKLAHOMA WITH A MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING W ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 
26N112W TO 27N130W...AND INTO A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE AT 26N139W. 
DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS 
TROUGH AXIS. FURTHER N...A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING S 
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA 
AS FAR S AS 29N...BUT DRY AIR IS ALSO NOTED TO THE N OF THIS 
MOISTURE ALONG 36N AND IS SPREADING S IN THE WAKE OF THE MOIST 
AIR. SOME UPPER MOISTURE IS WRAPPING AROUND THE E SEMICIRCLE OF 
THE SMALL CYCLONE NEAR 27N135W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE HAS CUT OFF W OF THE AREA NEAR 13N147W WITH 
CONVECTION ENHANCED E OF THE CENTER. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS 
QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 08N110W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING NW TO A CREST AT 22N140W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THIS 
RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 108W AND 
118W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FANS OVER THE TROPICS FROM 05N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 106W AND 121W. DENSE UPPER MOISTURE IS OBSERVED 
ELSEWHERE UNDER THE RIDGE...FROM 05N TO 23N BETWEEN 118W AND 
148W...SUPPLEMENTED BY THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
CUT OFF CYCLONE.

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM 30N94W ACROSS OLD MEXICO TO BASE 
OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 08N104W. THE UPPER FLOW IS 
SOUTHERLY AND APPEARS DRY OVER THE AREA E OF 100W AND QUICKLY 
EVAPORATES DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE SMALL CONVECTIVE AREAS 
FLARING ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 100W. 

AT THE SURFACE...
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N132W TO 16N107W. NE TRADES AT 20 TO 25 
KT CONTINUE SW OF THE RIDGE TO 10N W OF 112WV WITH NW SWELLS  
MIXING WITH NE SWELL OVER THE AREA W OF 105W. THE AREA OF NE TO 
E WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WATERS W OF 125W BY LATE SUN. NW WINDS 
AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL 
DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SAT.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER LAND TO 
MINIMAL GALE FORCE THUS GALE WARNING MOVED AHEAD TO INITIAL 
CONDITIONS AT 0000 UTC. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE ON 
SAT AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT LATE SUN.  
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE AT 20 KT THROUGH 
SUN. GULF OF PANAMA...N WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH SUN.

$$
NELSON