000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI FEB 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N77W TO 04N110W TO 08N112W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING FROM 01N 
TO 07N E OF 79W TO JUST INLAND COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG FLAREUPS IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 
12N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYERED UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER N TEXAS WITH A MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING W ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 
28N110W TO 27N130W...AND INTO A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE AT 27N139W. 
DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS 
TROUGH AXIS. FURTHER N...A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING S 
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA 
PENINSULA...BUT DRY AIR IS ALSO NOTED N OF THE MOISTURE ALONG 
36N AND SPREADING S IN THE WAKE OF THE MOIST AIR. SOME UPPER 
MOISTURE IS WRAPPING AROUND THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE SMALL 
CYCLONE NEAR 27N135W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE HAS CUT OFF W OF THE AREA NEAR 14N147W WITH 
CONVECTION ENHANCED E OF THE CENTER. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS 
CENTERED OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 08N110W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING NW TO A CREST AT 24N138W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THIS 
RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 1110W AND 
120W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE FANS OVER THE TROPICS FROM 05N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. DENSE UPPER MOISTURE IS OBSERVED 
ELSEWHERE UNDER THE RIDGE...FROM 05N TO 23N BETWEEN 120W AND 
150W...SUPPLEMENTED BY THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
CUT OFF CYCLONE.

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM 30N94W ACROSS OLD MEXICO TO BASE 
OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 08N105W. THUS...THE UPPER 
FLOW IS SOUTHERLY OVER THE AREA E OF 100W AND APPEARS DRY AND IS 
QUICKLY EVAPORATING DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE SMALL CONVECTIVE 
AREAS FLARING ALONG THE ITCZ.

AT THE SURFACE...
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N132W TO 16N107W. NE TRADES AT 20 TO 25 
KT CONTINUE SW OF THE RIDGE TO 10N W OF 115W. NW SWELLS ARE 
MIXING WITH NE SWELL OVER THE AREA W OF 105W. THE AREA OF NE TO 
E WINDS WILL EXPAND N TO 31N BUT SHIFT W TO THE WATERS W OF 130W 
BY LATE SUN. NW WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SAT.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT WILL INCREASE TO  
MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH BELOW GALE ON SAT 
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT LATE SUN.  
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE AT 20 KT THROUGH 
SUN. GULF OF PANAMA...N WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH SUN.

$$
NELSON