000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041546 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI FEB 04 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ALONG 05N84W TO 03N94W TO 08N113W TO 06N125W TO 07N135W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N AND 60 NM S OF AXIS FROM 112W TO 120W. ...DISCUSSION... SHARP DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W TEXAS TO NORTHERN MEXICO INTO E PAC ALONG 29N EXITS NEAR 32N130W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 140 KT JET CORE PRESENTLY OVER TEXAS EXTEND INTO E PAC N OF 15N E OF 120W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TILTED FROM 10N120W TO 26N132W BLOCKS INCIPIENT UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE FORMING NEAR 29N139W FROM MOVING E...FOR THE MOMENT. AT THE SURFACE... LARGE AND HEALTHY 1038 MB RIDGE AT 38N130W ENHANCES COLD AIR ADVECTION W OF TROUGH RUNNING ALONG SIERRA MADRE IN WESTERN MEXICO FUNNELING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N-NW WINDS INTO GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WHILE GALE FORCE WINDS DIMINISHED EARLIER... GRADIENT LIKELY TO REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH SAT UNTIL RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES NE LATER TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NE BREEZE W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES. GAP WINDS... FLOW OF DENSE COLD AIR ACROSS ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TEMPORARILY WEAKENED BELOW GALE FORCE LAST NIGHT...BUT REMAINS VERY STRONG. IT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN SAT INTO MINIMAL A GALE AS NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR MASS ENTERS WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FIND ITS WAY INTO THE GAP. SURGE IS SHORT-LIVED AS QUICK MOVING HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO IS FORCED OUT BY NEXT COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING FEATURES OVER SW N ATLC PULSATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND REFLECT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. FRESH EASTERLIES ARE ENHANCED BY COOL NIGHTTIME DRAINAGE AIR STRENGTHENING THE AT NIGHT THEN WEAKENING IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST WELL BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD. $$ WALLY BARNES