000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040334
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI FEB 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 04N77W TO 03N104W 
TO 08N111W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 
NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
AND ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA 
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE 
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...RESULTING IN STRONG TO 
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS OFF THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA 
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS TO 30 KT AS WELL.

FURTHER WEST...A REX BLOCK PATTERN IS SETTING UP ALOFT OFF THE 
WEST COAST OF THE U.S. STRONG HIGH PRES AREA NEAR 38N132W WILL 
REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADE WINDS GENERALLY FROM 08N TO 25N W OF 110W. WITH THE ADDED 
PUNCH OF NEAR GALE FORCE NE WINDS OFF THE BAJA COAST...EXPECT 
FRESH NE SWELL TO MIX WITH NW SWELL MIGRATING THROUGH THE AREA 
TO SUPPORT SEAS TO 14 FT IN THE AREA OF TRADES TONIGHT AND FRI. 

A SURGE OF DENSE COLD AIR MOVING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS BROUGHT GALE FORCE WINDS INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 
12-24 HOURS AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND HIGH PRES OVER THE 
SOUTHERN PLAINS WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHORT 
WAVE ENERGY WILL MIGRATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE 
SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRI...SUPPORTING ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR WITH 
A COLD FRONT PUSHING ANOTHER BRIEF EPISODE OF GALES TO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT.

FURTHER SOUTH...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS ARE SUPPORTING GAP WINDS 
TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. FRESH NE TRADES ARE ALSO 
PUSHING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO 
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. 


$$
MUNDELL