000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 04N77W TO 02N84W TO 
03N103W TO 07N111W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
AND ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA 
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE 
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...RESULTING IN GALE FORCE 
WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SHIP OBSERVATIONS 
OFF THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA REPORTED 
SUSTAINED WINDS TO 30 KT AS WELL.

FURTHER WEST...A REX BLOCK PATTERN IS SETTING UP ALOFT AS THE 
WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF SOUTH OF AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 40N135W...LEAVING ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW 
SE OF HAWAII NEAR 17N147W. STRONG HIGH PRES AREA NEAR 38N132W 
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MAINTAINING FRESH 
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS GENERALLY FROM 08N TO 25N W OF 110W. WITH 
THE ADDED PUNCH OF NEAR GALE FORCE NE WINDS OFF THE BAJA COAST 
EXPECT FRESH NE SWELL TO MIX WITH NW SWELL MIGRATING THROUGH THE 
AREA TO SUPPORT SEAS TO 14 FT IN THE AREA OF TRADES BY FRI. 

A SURGE OF DENSE COLD AIR IS MOVING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS INTO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...REPORTED BY CRUISE SHIP CORAL PRINCESS
ZCDF4 THIS MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT 6-12 
HOURS AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN 
PLAINS WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE 
ENERGY WILL MIGRATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE 
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH TOMORROW...SUPPORTING ANOTHER PUSH OF 
COLD AIR...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ANOTHER BRIEF EPISODE OF 
GALES TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT.

FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS ARE SUPPORTING FRESH GAP WINDS THROUGH
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. STRONG NE TRADES ARE ALSO PUSHING THROUGH 
THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. 


$$
MUNDELL