000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 03 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 03N78W TO 09N110W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 06N77W TO 
02N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
AND ADJACENT PACIFC WATERS OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA 
PENINSULA...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS 
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS IS RESULTING 
IN GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS SHOWN IN  
HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT DATA FROM 04Z. SHIP OBSERVATIONS OFF THE 
WEST CENTRAL COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA REPORTED SUSTAINED 
WINDS TO 30 KT AS WELL.

FURTHER WEST...A REX BLOCK PATTERN IS SETTING UP ALOFT AS THE 
WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF SOUTH OF AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 40N135W...LEAVING ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW 
SE OF HAWAII NEAR 17N147W. A 1035 MB HIGH PRES AREA NEAR 38N132W 
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MAINTAINING 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS GENERALLY FROM 08N TO 25N W OF 110W. 
ALONG WITH THE ADDED PUNCH OF THE NEAR GALE FORCE NE WINDS OFF 
THE BAJA COAST...EXPECT FRESH NE SWELL TO MIX WITH NW SWELL 
MIGRATING THROUGH THE AREA TO SUPPORT SEAS TO 14 FT IN THE AREA 
OF TRADES BY FRI. 

SIMILAR TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SURGE OF DENSER COLD DRY 
AIR IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS BRINING GALE FORCE WINDS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPC...AS REPORTED BY A SHIP OBSERVATION EALRY THIS 
MORNING. BUOYS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH LAND BASED 
OBSERVATIONS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ISTHMUS SHOW WINDS ARE 
ALREADY STARTING TO SUBSIDE AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND STRONG 
HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHER PLAINS N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND 
LIFTS NE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MIGRATE 
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH 
TOMORROW...SUPPORTING ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRI...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES TO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE FRI.

FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS ARE SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG GAP 
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE STRONG NE TRADES ARE 
ALSO PUSHING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA THIS MORNING...WITH A 
11Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWING 20 KT FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA. 
THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. 


$$
CHRISTENSEN