000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 3 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1800 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 5N78W 4N95W 8N110W 5N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION EXTENDS 
FROM 32N128W TO 15N123W. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE 
RIDGE. DOWNSTREAM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH IS OVER THE SW U.S. AND EXTENDS ACROSS NW MEXICO TO 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 25N120W. A 95-100 KT JET STREAM 
EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. 
A 500 NM WIDE BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS S OF THE JET STREAM OVER 
CENTRAL MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS E 
OF 100W HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS AND STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS 
FUNNELING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH GALE 
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
PEAK THIS MORNING WITH NW WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KT AND BUILDING SEAS 
TO 13 FT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO PUNCH THROUGH A 
GAP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
WITH NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA N OF 18N E OF 122W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS 
ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA BY THIS EVENING.

STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF 
MEXICO HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO 
AND RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TODAY THEN BELOW GALE FORCE TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N132W TO 18N110W. FLOW 
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING 20 KT 
TRADES FROM 9N-24N W OF 120W. SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 
THE ITCZ FROM 6N-14N ALONG 112W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE 
TROUGH.

$$
DGS