000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030335
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 3 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N78W TO 
03N95W TO 09N110W TO 08N126W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW 
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS AND STRONG HIGH PRES TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS WILL 
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK THU MORNING WITH NW WINDS OF 30 TO 40 
KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO 13 FT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL 
ALSO PUNCH THROUGH A GAP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH NEAR GALE NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT OFF THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 21N E OF 122W DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE STRONGER FLOW OVER 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA WILL 
START TO DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING AS THE INTENSE HIGH 
PRES OVER THE ROCKIES WEAKENS.

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG 130W BETWEEN THE 
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A STALLED MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 145W. STRONG 
SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP NEAR 38N132W THU THROUGH FRI... 
RESULTING A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 10N 
TO 23N W OF 124W. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE BY 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS AND THE WINDS 
OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA MERGE WITH THE TRADE WINDS.

...GAP WINDS...
COLDER AIR BEHIND A FRONT PLUNGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN 
MEXICO WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AND ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH THU EVENING. 40 KT WINDS REPORTED AT 
IXTEPEC AS THE FRONT WENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. N TO NE WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

ENHANCED TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH LATE NIGHT 
EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG E 
TO NE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
MUNDELL