000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022138
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 2 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N78W TO 
04N97W TO 08N106W TO 09N125W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW 
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS AND STRONG HIGH PRES TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL 
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO PEAK THU MORNING WITH NW WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KT AND BUILDING 
SEAS TO 13 FT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO PUNCH THROUGH 
A GAP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
WITH NE WINDS TO 30 KT OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA N OF 21N E 
OF 122W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW 
GALE FORCE THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 30 HOURS. THE 
STRONGER FLOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF THE PACIFIC 
COAST OF BAJA WILL START TO DIMINISH THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING 
AS THE INTENSE HIGH PRES OVER THE ROCKIES MODIFIES AND WEAKENS. 

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG 130W BETWEEN THE 
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A STALLED MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 145W. STRONG 
HIGH PRES AREA WILL DEVELOP NEAR 38N132W THU THROUGH FRI... 
RESULTING A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 07N 
TO 24N W OF 120W. THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE BY 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS AND THE WINDS 
OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA MERGE WITH THE TRADE WINDS.

...GAP WINDS...
COLDER AIR BEHIND A FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO WILL PLUNGE THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS BRINGING 
WINDS TO GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ADJACENT 
PACIFIC WATERS BY THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
BELOW GALE FORCE IN ABOUT 30 HOURS.

ENHANCED TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH LATE NIGHT 
EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG E 
TO NE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
MUNDELL