000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021540
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 03N78W TO 
06N95W TO 08N110W TO 07N130W TO 05N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR 03N80W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS 
106W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW 
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS AND STRONG HIGH PRES TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL 
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...FORECAST TO REACH GALE FORCE N OF 28N THIS 
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK N OF 25 BY THU MORNING 
WHEN THE FORECAST SHOWS NW WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KT AND BUILDING 
SEAS OF UP TO 12 FT. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN 
PUNCH THROUGH A GAP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...DELIVERING NE WINDS TO 30 
KT TO THE AREA OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA N OF 21N E OF 122W 
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW GALE FORCE 
THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE STRONGER 
FLOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
BAJA WILL START TO DIMINISH LATE THU INTO FRI AS THE COLD HIGH 
PRES OVER THE ROCKIES MODIFIES AND WEAKENS. 

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG 130W BETWEEN THE 
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A STALLED MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 145W. AN 
ASSOCIATED 1030 MB HIGH PRES AREA WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR 
37N134W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROAD 
AREA OF 20 KT TRADES FROM 07N TO 24N W OF 120W. THE AREAL EXTENT 
OF THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH 
PRES STRENGTHENS AND THE WINDS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA MERGE 
WITH THE TRADE WINDS. 

COLDER AIR BEHIND A FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO WILL PLUNGE THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS BRINGING 
WINDS TO GALE FORCE TO THIS GULF AND ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS BY 
THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE IN 
ABOUT 36 HOURS.

FURTHER SOUTH...ENHANCED TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 
WITH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN 
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SHIP ZCDF4 MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO SHOWED NE WINDS OF 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

$$
GR