000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 3N78W 8N110W 6N130W 4N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION EXTENDS 
FROM 32N133W TO 15N125W. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE 
RIDGE. DOWNSTREAM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH IS OVER THE SW U.S. AND EXTENDS ACROSS NW MEXICO TO 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. A 90-100 KT JET STREAM EXTENDS ACROSS 
NORTHERN MEXICO. A 400 NM WIDE BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS S OF THE JET 
STREAM OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY 
STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS E OF 105W HAS 
SUPPRESSED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL 
ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS 
FUNNELING THROUGH THE COLORADO RIVER VALLY INTO THE NORTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA REACHING GALE FORCE LATER TODAY OVER THE 
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL 
PUNCH THROUGH A GAP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY WED BRINGING NE WINDS TO 30 KT TO THE 
AREA OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA FROM 26N TO 29N AS FAR W AS 
118W. THE STRONGER FLOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA WILL START TO DIMINISH THU INTO FRI AS THE 
COLD HIGH PRES OVER THE ROCKIES MODIFIES AND WEAKENS. 

STRONG HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BUILD BEHIND COLD FRONT MOVING 
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT 
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND RESULT IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH 
THE THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT THEN BELOW GALE FORCE THU 
NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N135W TO 15N100W. FLOW 
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING 20 KT 
TRADES FROM 9N-24N W OF 120W. THREE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ALONG 
THE ITCZ. ONE FROM 5N-11N ALONG 111W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE
TROUGH. SECOND TROUGH IS FROM 3N-10N ALONG 126W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. AND FINALLY ANOTHER TROUGH 
IS FROM 3N-9N ALONG 136W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE N E OF THE 
TROUGH.

$$
DGS