000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 03N78W TO 04N86W TO 03N92W TO 07N105W TO 08N105W 
TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW 
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS AND STRONG HIGH PRES TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL 
RESULT IN STRONG WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE COLORADO RIVER 
VALLY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT...REACHING 
GALE FORCE BY EARLY WED MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF 
THE GULF. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PUNCH THROUGH A GAP IN 
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY 
WED...DELIVERING NE WINDS TO 30 KT TO THE AREA OFF THE PACIFIC 
COAST OF BAJA FROM 26N TO 29N AS FAR W AS 118W. THE STRONGER 
FLOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
BAJA WILL START TO DIMINISH THU INTO FRI AS THE COLD HIGH PRES 
OVER THE ROCKIES MODIFIES AND WEAKENS.  

DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG 130W BETWEEN THE 
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A STALLED MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 145W. AN 
ASSOCIATED 1030 MB HIGH PRES AREA WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR 
34N132W...BLOCKING A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE WEST NEAR 146W. 
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF 20 
KT TRADES...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY 48 HOURS 
AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFT S AND BUILDS SLIGHTLY. JASON ALTIMETER 
PASSES FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO ALONG WITH SHIP OBSERVATIONS 
CONFIRM WAVEWATCH III AND ECWAVE INITIALIZATIONS SHOWING SEAS TO 
8 TO 9 FT...LIKELY IN MIXED NW AND NE SWELL OVER MUCH OF THE 
AREA WHERE NE TRADES ARE ACTIVE BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND AROUND 20N.

COLDER AIR BEHIND A FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO WILL PLUNGE THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS 
WED...BRINGING WINDS TO GALE FORCE TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AND ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS BY WED AFTERNOON. FURTHER 
SOUTH...ENHANCED TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH 
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN FRESH 
TO STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN