000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011603
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 03N78W TO 07N105W TO 05N110W 
TO 08N120W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 114W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...

AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 40N130W WITH 
RIDGE AXES EXTENDING SE TO 30N130W TO 20N110W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE 
ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 08N TO 20N W OF 
120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE 
OVER NEW MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS N OF 
24N WITHIN 120 NM OF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA...MAINTAINING THE FRESH 
TO STRONG TRADES. 

LOOKING FORWARD...VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD 
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION BY WED MORNING. THIS 
FEATURE...COMBINED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO 
WILL CREATE A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULT IN A 
SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE WINDS 
WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY TO GALE FORCE...BY WED MORNING.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICA PASSES TO PRODUCE 
GAP WINDS AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 89W. WITH 
THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS MAINTAINING ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN...THIS AREA OF FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS IN 
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. 

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS FUNNELING 
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL 
RESULT IN FRESH 20 KT WINDS BY WED MORNING...INCREASING TO NEAR 
GALE BY WED EVENING.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N130W TO 20N120W. A LARGE AREA 
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS IS 
WITHIN THE RIDGE. DOWNSTREAM A STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER 
THE SW U.S. AND EXTENDS ACROSS NW MEXICO TO SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. A 100-120 KT JET STREAM EXTENDS FROM 25N117W ACROSS 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WHERE WINDS 
INCREASE TO 140 KT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
COLOMBIA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS E 
OF 105W HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

$$
FORMOSA