000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE FEB 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 3N78W 7N105W 6N120W 5N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N130W TO 20N120W. A LARGE AREA 
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS IS 
WITHIN THE RIDGE. DOWNSTREAM A STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER 
THE SW U.S. AND EXTENDS ACROSS NW MEXICO TO SOUTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. A 100-120 KT JET STREAM EXTENDS FROM 25N117W ACROSS 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WHERE WINDS 
INCREASE TO 140 KT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
COLOMBIA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS E 
OF 105W HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS ACROSS THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE AREA WSW 
WINDS 70-75 KT S OF 5S W OF 115W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
IS NOTED S OF 8N.

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N130W TO 15N105W. FLOW 
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING 20 KT 
TRADES FROM 8N-20N W OF 120W. STRONG HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO 
BUILD BEHIND THE STORM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. 
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS MEXICO AND RESULT IN GALE 
FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WED NIGHT.

$$
DGS