000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010312
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 04N77W TO TO 05N85W TO 04N91W TO 07N102W TO 
04N107W TO 08N118W TO 06N140W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 32N131W WITH 
RIDGE AXES EXTENDING SE TO 16N104W...AND SW ACROSS THE FAR NW 
PART OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH 
AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES FROM 08N TO 23N W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO 
STRONG NW TO N WINDS N OF 23N WITHIN 120 NM OF THE W COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN N OF THE 
AREA...MAINTAINING THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES. 

LOOKING FORWARD...VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD 
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION BY WED MORNING. THIS 
FEATURE...COMBINED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO 
WILL CREATE A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULT IN A 
SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE WINDS 
WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT WED MORNING...AND WILL REACH NEAR 
GALE...AND POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE...BY WED NIGHT.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICA PASSES TO PRODUCE 
GAP WINDS AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 89W. WITH 
THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS MAINTAINING ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN...THIS AREA OF FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS IN 
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. 

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS FUNNELING 
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL 
RESULT IN FRESH 20 KT WINDS BY WED AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 
NEAR GALE BY WED NIGHT.

$$
AL