000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312122
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 31 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 05N77W TO 04N80W TO 06N85W TO 04N93W TO 
06N102W TO 04N109W TO 06N140W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

AT THE SURFACE...A 1031 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 33N130W WITH 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 17N106W...AND SW ACROSS THE FAR NW 
PART OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH 
AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES FROM 09N TO 22N W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SW UNITED STATES IS 
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS N OF 23N E OF 121W TO W 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. 
THIS GRADIENT IS ALSO SUPPORTING 20 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA FROM 27N TO 30N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AND COLD FRONT W OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING FRESH SE FLOW 
OVER THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
REMAIN N OF THE AREA...MAINTAINING THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES. 

GAP WINDS...
FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
WERE FUNNELING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICA PASS TO PRODUCE GAP 
WINDS AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 89W. WITH THE 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS MAINTAINING ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN...THIS AREA OF FRESH WINDS WILL MAINTAIN OVER THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE EARLY 
MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. 

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS FUNNELING 
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL 
RESULT IN FRESH 20 KT WINDS BY WED AFTERNOON.

$$
AL