000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300317
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JAN 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 09N84W TO 
05N100W TO 07N114W TO 04N140W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

AT THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED JUST N OF 
THE AREA AT 31N134W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE OVER THE N WATERS 
TO NEAR 18N107W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO TO SUPPORT 20 
KT NW WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 
25N BY MON AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
ITCZ ARE RESULTING IN FRESH 20 KT TRADES FROM 14N TO 21N W OF 
123W. 

REGIONAL SEAS ARE BEING DOMINATED BY NW SWELL UP TO 8 FT OVER 
THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. ANOTHER BATCH OF NW SWELL WILL REACH 
THE FAR NW CORNER TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE SE 
BUILDING SEA HEIGHTS UP TO 12 FT N OF 23N E OF 126W BY MON 
EVENING.    

GAP WINDS...
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM IXTEPEC MEXICO SHOW SUSTAINED 
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15 KT...INDICATING THAT WINDS 
FUNNELING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT. LINGERING NE 
SWELL WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY SUN MORNING. 

NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT...AND SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE 
PREVAIL OVER THE GULF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST WHILE EXPANDING W TO NEAR 95W BY SUN AFTERNOON...THEN 
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY MON EVENING.

$$
AL