000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292106
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JAN 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 05N78W TO 
02N90W TO 07N110W TO 03N140W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

AT THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED JUST N OF 
THE AREA AT 31N139W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE OVER THE N WATERS 
TO NEAR 16N106W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO TO SUPPORT 20 
KT NW WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 
25N BY MON AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
ITCZ ARE RESULTING IN FRESH 20 KT TRADES FROM 14N TO 22N W OF 
125W AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. 

REGIONAL SEAS ARE BEING DOMINATED BY NW SWELL RAISING SEAS UP TO 
8 FT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. ANOTHER BATCH OF NW SWELL 
WILL REACH THE FAR NW CORNER TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL 
PROPAGATE SE BUILDING SEA HEIGHTS UP TO 12 FT N OF 26N BETWEEN 
120W AND 130W BY MON.    

GAP WINDS...
LATEST ASCAT PASS INDICATES FRESH 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE 
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WINDS HAVE VEERED OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE...AND WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ARE DIMINISHING. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 
KT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT...WITH LINGERING NE 
SWELL DIMINISHING BELOW 8 FT BY SUN MORNING. 

NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT...AND SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE 
PREVAIL OVER THE GULF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST WHILE EXPANDING W TO NEAR 95W BY SUN AFTERNOON...THEN 
DECREASE TO 20 KT AND RETREAT TO 88W BY MON AFTERNOON.

$$
AL