000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290917
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JAN 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 3N79W 4N85W 10N114W 5N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N135W TO 23N140W. A 95-105 KT IS ALONG THE 
W SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SEPARATES THE 
TROUGH FROM A DOWNSTREAM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM 32N125W TO 22N125W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER NEAR 32N112W, STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS WITHIN 500 
NM SW OF THE CIRCULATION. A 90-105 KT JET STREAM IS S OF THE 
CIRCULATION FROM 25N120W ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO. THE JET IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO  
MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO 
NEAR THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS S TO 15N95W. 

IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED NEAR 12N139W. A LARGE AREA DEEP LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE 
WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS IS NE OF THE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION  FROM 13N-21N W OF 132W. 

HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS IS MOVING E AND 
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS WEAKENED WITH WINDS 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BELOW GALE FORCE AND FORECAST TO 
LESS THAN 20 KT BY THIS EVENING. NE WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGH THE 
GULF PAPAGAYO WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  

$$
DGS