000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282214 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 28 2011

CORRECTED W OF 130W TO READ W OF 120W

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 4N100W 6N114W 6N130W 6N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 77W-79W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 107W-110W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE N 
OF 20N. A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N119W EXTENDS 
A TROUGH S TO 23N. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS
NOTED FROM 21N TO 21N. ELSEWHERE S OF THE LOW BROAD SW UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA WITH WITH ABUNDANT CENTRAL PACIFIC 
UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD IN THIS FLOW 
TO ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT 
BETWEEN 105W AND 112W IS AIDING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 
107W-110W. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE MOSITURE IS AN AREA OF 
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE NOTED S OF 14N E OF 100W INDUCING A RATHER 
DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WITH ONLY SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN THIS AREA. OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PORTION...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
ZONAL FLOW IS JUST INLAND COLOMBIA. IT IS HELPING TO FIRE OFF
THE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE
ABOVE UNDER ITCZ.

W OF 120W...
A LARGE MID/UPPER CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT FORMED OFF THE 
TAIL END OF A TROUGH IS W OF THE REGION NEAR 12N145W MOVING E
ABOUT 12 KT. TO ITS N...A RATHER VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS 
QUICKLY MOVING E. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ABOUT 300 
NM NW OF THE AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT TO THE E 
OF THIS TROUGH OVER THIS SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION REGION. THE 
ASSOCIATED 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA AT 
30N136W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 25N123W TO NEAR 20N110W. THE HIGH IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE A LITTLE TO THE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
BLOCKING THE FRONT FROM ENTERING THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL THEN 
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E AFTER 24 HOURS ALLOWING THE COLD 
FRONT TO MAKE A MOVE TOWARDS THE FAR NE CORNER BY 48 HOURS. NE 
TO E TRADES OF 20 KT ARE CONFINED FROM 15N TO 20N W OF 135W AS 
THE RIDGE TO THE N INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH JUST W 
OF THE AREA ALONG 145W. AS THE HIGH NEAR 30N136W BEGINS TO SHIFT 
EWD AFTER 24 HOURS...THE GRADIENT WILL THEN RELAX SOME. MAX SEAS 
OF 10 FT IN NW SWELL ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE FAR WESTERN 
PORTION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THEN SUBSIDE TO 9 FT IN
48 HOURS. BROKEN TO SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE 
STREAMING NNE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW W OF THE AREA 
CROSSING 140W FROM 10N TO 24N REACHING E TO NEAR 122W. POSSIBLE 
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD BE UNDERNEATH THESE CLOUDS.

GAP WINDS...
THE 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AS STRONG HIGH PRES REMAINS 
CENTERED OVER FAR NW MEXICO. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS 
FUNNELING STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND 
INTO THE THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS INDICATED BY SURFACE 
OBSERVATION REPORTS SALINA CRUZ AT 16N95W WHERE WINDS HAVE 
GUSTED TO NEAR 30 KT OVER RECENT HOURS...AND AT STATION IXTEPEC 
JUST INLAND THE NW SIDE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WHERE N 
WINDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 30 TO 
35 KT WITH GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 45 KT. THE CURRENT GALE WARNING 
FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N96W IS EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SAT 
MORNING. N TO NE WINDS THEN DECREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT. BECAUSE OF 
THE MARKEDLY INCREASED WINDS ALONG WITH DURATION AND 
FETCH...SEAS HAVE BUILD UP TO 11 FT IN THE GULF...BUT ARE 
FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO MUCH LOWER LEVELS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 
HOURS.

THE STRONG NLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS RESULTING
IN SEAS OF UP TO 10 FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 16N95W
TO 14N96W TO 12N97W. THIS SEA STATE WILL LINGER INTO EARLY SAT 
EVENING WITH MORE OF A NW COMPONENT TO SWELL DIRECTION...THEN 
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT OVERNIGHT SAT AND INTO EARLY SUN 
MORNING.

NE 20 KT WINDS WILL BEGIN THROUGH THE GULF PAPAGAYO NEAR DAYBREAK
FRI MORNING...THEN EXPAND W TO NEAR 88W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 
HOURS AS WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND 
INTERACTING WITH LOWER PRES OVER NW MEXICO IS RESULTING IN NW 
20 KT WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF N OF 28N. 
THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 18 
HOURS AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

$$
AGUIRRE