000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281528
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JAN 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 03N77W TO 03N100W TO 06N120W 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W.

...DISCUSSION...

1024 MB HIGH PRES IS W OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 32N122W.  
NW SWELL GENERATED BY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH HAS MOVED 
FROM THE NW PORTION OF AREA TO THE COAST OF ECUADOR WITH 8 FT 
SEAS TO 115W. OTHERWISE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL 
BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SEA HEIGHTS OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. ONLY 
EXCEPTIONS TO THE OVERALL TREND ARE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF 
LOCATIONS PRONE TO GAP WINDS...DISCUSSED BELOW.

GAP WINDS...
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER SE MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH 1022 MB HIGH 
PRES OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY GALE 
FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS A COLD AIR MASS SURGES 
SWD THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AS INDICATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATION 
REPORTS FROM STATION IXTEPEC. A 1327 UTC ASCAT 25 KM COASTAL 
PASS ALSO VERIFIES THE GALE. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO TERMINATE 
AT 0000 UTC THIS EVENING...WITH 20-30 KT WINDS CONTINUING FOR 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEAS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE NOW UP TO 
11 FT.

20-25 KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND WILL  
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEAS ARE PRESENTLY 6 FT AND WILL 
BUILD TO 8 FT WITHIN 24 HOURS AND PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A 70 TO 90 KT UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM IS OVER S BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUD FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 
100W-115W. 

$$
FORMOSA