000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280343
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JAN 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N77W 4N87W 3N97W 7N115W 7N126W 8N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 135W-137W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
105W-108W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 130W...A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
N OF 20N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR SW U.S SW 
TO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SW TO NEAR 23N129W. TO 
THE S OF TROUGH BROAD SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA 
WITH WITH ABUNDANT CENTRAL PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE BEING 
ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD IN THIS FLOW TO ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO 
THE GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN 100W AND 112W IS 
AIDING CONVECTION AS WELL AS AN AREA OF TSTMS THAT EXISTS N OF 
THE ITCZ FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W. THE ONLY 
EXCEPTION TO THE MOSITURE IS AN AREA OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE 
NOTED S OF 17N E OF 100W INDUCING A RATHER DRY AND STABLE 
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WITH ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUD STREAMERS 
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING FROM NE TO SW FROM 6N TO 
10N BETWEEN 90W AND 106W.

W OF 130W...
A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT FORMED OFF THE TAIL END OF A 
TROUGH IS W OF THE REGION ALONG 145W. AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING 
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST NW OF THE AREA. MID/UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT TO THE E OF THIS TROUGH OVER THIS 
SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION REGION. THE ASSOCIATED 1024 MB SURFACE 
HIGH IS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA AT 34N131W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 
NEAR 23N124W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SW TO NEAR 31N137W IN 
24 HOURS BLOCKING A RATHER ROBUST COLD FRONT WELL NW OF THE AREA 
FROM MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER. THE HIGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO 
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E AFTER 24 HOURS ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT
TO MAKE A MOVE TOWARDS THE FAR NE CORNER BY 48 HOURS. NE TO E
TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE CONFINED FROM 15N TO 22N W OF 134W...
AND FROM 7N TO 17N BETWEEN 124W AND 132W AS THE RIDGE TO THE 
N INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH JUST W OF THE AREA...
AND ANOTHER ONE ALONG FROM 17N123W TO 13N125W. AS THE HIGH TO 
THE N WEAKENED AND SHIFTS E OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE AREA
OF TRADES THEN DIMINISHES FROM 16N TO 21N W OF 136W. MAX SEAS OF 
10 OR 11 FT IN NW SWELL ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE FAR WESTERN 
PORTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID TO HIGH 
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NE AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW W 
OF THE AREA TO ACROSS 140W FROM 6N TO 20N AND E TO 130W. POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE UNDERNEATH THESE CLOUDS.

GAP WINDS...
LATEST SURFACE SUGGESTS A TIGHT GRADIENT LEFT BEHIND IN THE
WAKE OF GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT AS STRONG HIGH PRES HAS 
SETTLED IN OVER FAR NW MEXICO. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS
SENDING A COLD AIR MASS SWD FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO ACROSS 
MEXICO AND THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW 
MARKING THIS FLOW IS INDICATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATION REPORTS 
FROM STATION IXTEPEC JUST INLAND THE NW SIDE OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC WHERE N WINDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE BEEN 
SUSTAINED AT 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 AND 40 KT. A MINIMAL
GALE WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN NEAR 06 UTC WITHIN 30 NM
EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N96W...AND LAST TILL ABOUT
EARLY FRI EVENING. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE IN THE RANGE OF 8-10 FT
...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TO AROUND 8 FT BETWEEN THE NEXT 24 AND 36 
HOURS.

THE STRONG TEHUANTEPEC FLOW WILL GENERATE NE SWELL TO 9 FT
HAT WILL MIX WITH AN AREA OF NW SWELL GENERALLY S OF 14N 
BETWEEN 90W AND 112W...AND FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 91W AND 115W
IN 48 HOURS AT WHICH POINT THE LINGERING NW SWELL WILL HAVE 
DECAYED AND THE DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE NE.

NE 20 KT WINDS WILL BEGIN THROUGH THE GULF PAPAGAYO NEAR DAYBREAK
FRI MORNING...THEN EXPAND W TO NEAR 88W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 
HOURS AS WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND 
INTERACTING WITH LOWER PRES OVER NW MEXICO IS RESULTING IN NW 
20 KT WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF N OF 28N. 
THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 18 
HOURS AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

$$
AGUIRRE