000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU JAN 27 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 5N90W 6N112W 6N125W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W-108W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 130W...A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE N OF 20N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR SW U.S SW TO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SW TO 24N130W. TO THE S OF TROUGH BROAD SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA WITH WITH ABUNDANT CENTRAL PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD IN THIS FLOW TO ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN 100W AND 112W IS AIDING CONVECTION AS WELL AS AN AREA OF TSTMS THAT EXISTS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE MOSITURE IS AN AREA OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE NOTED S OF 17N E OF 100W INDUCING A RATHER DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WITH ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUD STREAMERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING FROM NE TO SW FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 105W. W OF 130W... A LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS W OF THE REGION ALONG 144W. AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST NW OF THE AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT TO THE E OF THIS TROUGH OVER THIS SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION REGION. THE ASSOCIATED 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA AT 37N134W WITH A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 23N124W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE TO NEAR 32N139W IN 24 HOURS BLOCKING A RATHER ROBUST COLD FRONT WELL NW OF THE AREA FROM MOVING INTO THE NW CORNER. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY W OF THE AREA ALONG 144W BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED BY THU AS THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ALLOWING FOR THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGING TO ITS NE. MAX SEAS OF 10 OR 11 FT IN NW SWELL ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS... LATEST SURFACE SUGGESTS A TIGHT GRADIENT LEFT BEHIND IN THE WAKE OF GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT AS STRONG HIGH PRES HAS SETTLED IN OVER FAR NW MEXICO. A COLD AIR MASS IS SURGING SWD FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO ACROSS MEXICO AND THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW MARKING THIS FLOW IS INDICATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATION REPORTS FROM STATION IXTEPEC ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ISTHMUS WHERE N WINDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THEREFORE...MINIMAL GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 00 UTC TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE IN ABOUT 30 HOURS AS THE HIGH WEAKENS SOME. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD POSSIBLY UP 10 FT PER LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE...THEN DECREASE TO 8 FT IN 48 HOURS. THE STRONG TEHUANTEPEC FLOW WILL GENERATE NE SWELL TO 9 FT HAT WILL MIX WITH AN AREA OF NW SWELL GENERALLY S OF 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 112W...AND FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 91W AND 100W IN 48 HOURS AT WHICH POINT THE LINGERING NW SWELL WILL HAVE DECAYED AND THE DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE NE. NE 20 KT WINDS WILL BEGIN THROUGH THE GULF PAPAGAYO IN EARLY FRI MORNING...THEN EXPAND W TO NEAR 91W WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERACTING WITH LOWER PRES OVER NW MEXICO IS RESULTING IN NW 20 WINDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF N OF 28N. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 24 HOURS AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. $$ AGUIRRE