000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270941
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JAN 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 04N78W TO 04N100W TO 09N133W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W 
AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES W OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 35N130W IS ACTING TO 
BLOCK THE ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM 35N140W TO 
28N145W FURTHER EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. AS A RESULT...THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY 
AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME NW SWELL GENERATED BY 
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EXTREME NW 
PORTION OF AREA...BUILDING SEAS TO 10-11 FT THU NIGHT AND FRI.
OTHERWISE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL BE A GRADUAL 
DECREASE IN SEA HEIGHTS OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. ONLY EXCEPTIONS 
TO THE OVERALL TREND ARE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF LOCATIONS PRONE 
TO GAP WINDS...DISCUSSED BELOW...AND AN AREA OF ENHANCED TRADE 
WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15N AND 21N W OF 135W FROM AN 
AMPLIFYING SURFACE TROUGH INDICATED THE GFS MODEL LATER TONIGHT. 

GAP WINDS...
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER SE MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES 
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING N WINDS OCCASIONALLY TO GALE 
FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS A COLD AIR MASS SURGES SWD 
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AS INDICATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATION 
REPORTS FROM STATION IXTEPEC WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS 
ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP BELOW 35 KT.  HOWEVER DIURNAL INFLUENCES 
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO PULSE BETWEEN 20-30 KT IN THE LATE NIGHT AND 
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SAT. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE EXPECTED 
TO BUILD TO 10 FT LATER TODAY PER LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE.

NE WINDS EXCEEDING 20 KT WILL BEGIN THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
IN ABOUT 48 HOURS EARLY SAT MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUN.

HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER PRES 
OVER NW MEXICO IS MAINTAINING NW WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE NORTHERN 
PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE AT 20-25 KT N OF 27N TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH 
TO LESS THAN 20 KT EARLY FRI AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS.

$$
MUNDELL