000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260937
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 04N122W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
HAS ALLOWED TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT W OF 130W BETWEEN
10N AND 20N. ASCAT PASSES PAST 12 HOURS SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE 
TRADE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF GAP WINDS...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SWEEP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO AROUND 93W...AND S OF
THE EQUATOR. WW3 WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS ARE 8-10 FT 
ACROSS AREA W OF 93W AND SHIP OBS PAST 6-12 HOURS AGREE WITH WW3.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE AREA NEAR 28N135W EARLY 
THU. THE HIGH WILL THEN WEAKEN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN 
ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING TO A POSITION FROM 32N136W 
TO 28N142W BEFORE STALLING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 
FORECAST TO TIGHTEN OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER THIS 
MORNING SUPPORTING NW WINDS TO 20-25 KT THU OVER THE NORTHERN 
GULF WATERS...PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY FRI.

GAP WINDS...THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INCREASING TO 20-30 KT LATER 
THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE DIURNALLY 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AROUND SUNRISE. 

$$
MUNDELL