000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251519
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 05N90W TO 05N110W TO 06N135W 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
01N TO 07N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N131W EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE SE TO 
NEAR 15N105W. SMALL AREA OF 20 KT TRADES AT SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE RIDGE FROM 08N TO 13N W OF 130W IS EVIDENT FROM ASCAT 
PASSES...WITH SEAS 10-12 FT OVER THIS AREA FROM LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELL. THE NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE AREA 
WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS PREVAILING W OF 100W. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN 
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY 
WEAKEN BY EARLY WED. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 
LOW NW OF THE AREA WILL INTRODUCE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE NW 
CORNER LATE THU. SEAS 10 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO 
OCCUPY THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 135W AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND 
MOVES NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN OVER THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN 24 HOURS WITH WINDS 20-25 KT N OF 25N. 
THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS.   

GAP WINDS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WILL 
RAPIDLY MOVE EASTWARD...REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT. N 
WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER TONIGHT...WITH 
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS 20-30 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THU.

$$
FORMOSA