000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250318
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JAN 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 04N77W TO 06N83W TO 04N92W TO 05N100W TO 
03N114W TO 06N135W TO 05.5N140W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...1026 MB...IS CENTERED NEAR 38N133W WITH 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING TO NEAR 19N108W. THERE IS A SMALL AREA 
OF 20 KT TRADES FROM 08N TO 15N W OF 130W. THE HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL 
MAINTAIN THIS A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADES. 

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION THE PAST 24 
HOURS HAS STARTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUE. 
AS A RESULT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND A 
TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO WILL LOOSEN AND WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT LATE TONIGHT.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE AREA. 
CURRENTLY...8 TO 11 FT SEAS PREVAIL W OF 100W. THIS SWELL WILL 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE...WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS PREVAILING OVER 
MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 90W BY WED NIGHT. 

GAP WINDS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
TUESDAY AND RAPIDLY SHIFT EASTWARD...REACHING THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT. WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL START TO INCREASE LATE TUE 
NIGHT...REACHING TO NEAR GALE FORCE WED MORNING. 

$$
AL