000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242115
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 04N77W TO 07N84W TO 05N88W TO 03N111W TO 
08N140W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...1027 MB...IS CENTERED NEAR 36N136W WITH 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING TO NEAR 19N108W. THERE IS A SMALL AREA 
OF 20 KT TRADES FROM 08N TO 14N W OF 132W AS DEPICTED BY THE 
LATEST ASCAT PASS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY 
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THIS A 
SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADES. 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
GREAT BASIN REGION AND A TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO IS SUPPORTING 
FRESH NW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE HIGH WILL 
SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUE. AS A RESULT...THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN AND WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT LATE TONIGHT.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE AREA. 
CURRENTLY...8 TO 11 FT SEAS PREVAIL W OF 100W. THIS SWELL WILL 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE...WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS PREVAILING OVER 
MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 90W BY WED AFTERNOON. 

GAP WINDS...
FRESH NE TO E 20 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN DIMINISH 
BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT. 

LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY AND RAPIDLY SHIFT EASTWARD...REACHING THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT. WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL START TO INCREASE TUE 
NIGHT...REACHING TO NEAR GALE WED MORNING. 

$$
AL