000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232123
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JAN 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 04N78W TO 06N83W TO 03N92W TO 02N107W TO 
09N140W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...1026 MB...IS CENTERED NEAR 36N137W WITH 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 14N105W. THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF 
20 KT TRADES FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 118W AND 131W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION AND A 
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO NEAR 
GALE NORTHERLY WINDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
REGION WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MON AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN THROUGH 
TUE. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS...WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT LATE MON/EARLY TUE.  

LONG PERIOD SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE AREA. 
CURRENTLY...8 TO 12 FT SEAS PREVAIL W OF 110 W. THIS SWELL WILL 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE...WITH 8 TO 10 FT SEAS PREVAILING W OF 
95W TUE AFTERNOON. 

GAP WINDS...
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE PREDOMINANTLY SE. AS A 
RESULT...WINDS FLOWING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS HAVE 
DIMINISHED...AND WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE 
DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT.

FRESH E WINDS OF 20 KT WERE INDICATED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. 
THESE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 
OCCURRING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE HELP OF NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW. 

MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES FRESH N OF 20 KT OVER THE GULF 
OF PANAMA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MON NIGHT 
BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT. 

$$

AL