000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 04N78W TO 06N84W TO 03N91W TO 03N108W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 05N E OF 
81W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM A 1025 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 36N138W TO BEYOND 25N160W NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN 
ISLANDS. MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MOST 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH TWO AREAS OF 20 KT NE TO E WINDS 
FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 118W AND 127W AND FROM 09N TO 17N W OF 
135W AS CAPTURED BY AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS BETWEEN 
23/0556 UTC AND 23/0602 UTC. ALSO...A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IS 
CURRENTLY OVER THE U.S. INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB 
HIGH CENTERED OVER NE NEVADA. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THIS RIDGE AND SURFACE TROUGHING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL 
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 20 TO 30 KT NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA THROUGH 25/0000 UTC. FARTHER SOUTH...DIFFLUENT UPPER 
LEVEL WINDS LOCATED EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 
21N144W... COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE 
ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 120W IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 07N TO 15N 
W OF 128W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 100W WILL 
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK 
AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA.

LONG PERIOD SWELL GENERATED A FEW DAYS AGO IN THE CENTRAL NORTH 
PACIFIC CONTINUES TO SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC. 8 TO 11 FT NW SWELL WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH REGION W OF 
106W BY EARLY MONDAY.

GAP WINDS...
N WINDS FLOWING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUE TO 
DIMINISH AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW HAS RE-ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER 
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
REGION ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

NE TO E WINDS OF 20 KT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS...REACHING MAXIMUM 
DRAINAGE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FINALLY...N WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF PANAMA REGION 
STRETCHING SOUTH TO 06N REMAINING E OF 80W. AN EARLY MORNING 
WINDSAT PASS AROUND 23/1128 UTC DEPICTED THE WIND FIELD AND AS 
FLOW BECOMES WEAKER S OF 11N OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...THE N WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY LATE SUNDAY. 

$$
HUFFMAN