000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230940 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JAN 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 06N85W TO 02N95W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS W OF 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...

WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 
40N134W TO BEYOND 28N150W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL
OVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL WINDS 
COUPLED WITH WEAK TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 130W
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF PERSISTENT MODERATE CONVECTION W OF 136W.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE CONTINUING THROUGH 
TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK TRADE DISTURBANCE TRIES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
ITCZ...SO SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE NEXT 12-
24 HOURS ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 130W.

LONG PERIOD SWELL GENERATED A FEW DAYS AGO IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
CONTINUES TO SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. 8 TO
11 FT NW SWELL WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION 
BY SUN NIGHT.

N WINDS FLOWING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE STARTED TO 
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO 
WEAKEN. WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO FALL 
BELOW 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE 
GREAT BASIN REGION THIS MORNING AND INCREASE WINDS OVER THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA TO 20-30 KT...PERSISTING THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.  

$$
MUNDELL