000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222112
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JAN 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 07N80W TO 04N98W TO 08N126W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 133W AND 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRES...1030 MB...IS CENTERED NEAR 45N126W WITH 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 20N110W AND SW TO W OF THE AREA 
NEAR 24N160W. LATEST ASCAT PASS INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF FRESH 
20 KT WINDS FROM 08N TO 14N W OF 133W. THIS HAS RESULTED IN 
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO INDUCE MODERATE CONVECTION IN 
THE ITCZ AS MENTIONED ABOVE. 

LONG PERIOD...19-20 SEC...SWELLS ARE AFFECTING THE AREA NW OF 
LINE 29N115W TO 03N124W TO 00N133W WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. THESE 
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SW OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH 
8 TO 11 FT SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 110W BY MON 
AFTERNOON. 

WITH HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER EASTERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE 
COLD FRONT...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL 
VEER WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DECREASING THE WINDS FLOWING 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AS A RESULT...WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT SUN AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH MON 
EVENING.  

$$
AL